Yesterday and this morning (so far) have been beautiful: sunny with only a few clouds, not too hot (or cold!), reasonably dry air. Thats a high pressure area for you (heard of the Bermuda High?). The only downside is that Ive been motorsailing a lot (most of) the last 24 hours, given the modest winds (often 6-7 kts) and my own desire to make good progress (see more below).
Im still in shorts and a polo shirt (same shorts, different polo since I left Antigua, if you must know). The water temperature here (due east of Wilmington, NC) is 74F, down from 82F in Antigua. But its been in the low 70s for several day. Lifes good on this (east) side of the Gulf Stream. I expect Ill have 24-36 more hours of conditions like this, then itll be back to reality as I cross the Stream and the continental shelf into much cooler (say, colder) waters. I didnt bring my snowmobiling suit for night watches this time, opting instead for a warm jacket, long undies, hat and gloves. Oh, and the modest cabin heating system I installed a couple of years ago.
The only real hurdle ahead of me is the prospect of quite strong winds tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon/evening. A few days ago, this looked like 30kts expected, but with 35 or even 40 nearby in terms of distance (from my course) or time (from when I expect to be in that area).
Yesterdays weather download was both worse and better. Worse, because now the forecast winds are up to 45kts in the vicinity. Better, because I saw that, if the forecast was 100% accurate (it is not), I could slip across its track ahead of the accelerating winds. Applying my routing model, I found that, if I moved quickly, I could get across the high wind zone and see a forecast maximum of 26kts vs. 31kts without hurrying. So Im pursuing that strategy: get across the zone as quickly as I reasonably can. And the faster I get there, the greater the margin of safety vs. those 45kt winds that I would very much like to avoid.
Keep in mind that, if I *knew* the top winds were going to be less than 35kts, I would have no particular concerns. Its the fact that 1) there are much stronger winds nearby, 2) this is a forecast, which will undoubtedly have errors vs. actual wind strength, location and time, 3) the forecast is for average wind strengthadd in the stronger wind gusts or a rain storm and the observed maxima could easily be 10kts higher, and 4) in case you forgot your physics, the pressure on the sails (and the boat, and meeverything) increases as the square of the increase in wind speed (so the impact of going from 30 to 40 kts is a lot higher than from 10 to 20 kts).
All this adds up to a big incentive to beat the storm (if it is a storm). Im determined to make at least 7kts at all times so, when the wind is only 7kts from abaft the beam (120 TWA), I motor instead of settling for, say, 6.6kts. It may sound like a small difference but, accumulated over 30+ hours, it could make a big difference. Plus, Im still above 3/4 tank of fuel, with a bit more in a jerry can, so fuel isnt a constraining factor.
When I download the weather today, I plan to get more detail than usual. Im curious about whats driving the wind development. For example, yesterdays GFS forecast (for 6 May 2000EDT) showed 42.1 kts at 38 00N 67 30W and 1.2 ktscalmat 38 30N 68 30W. Thats a ridiculously large difference (gradient) in two points 60 nm apart. I find it hard to believe any model can get that right.
Anyway, thats a long way of describing why Im trucking along at 7.5-8.0 kts, trying to beat all this uncertainty.
Now to download new weather forecasts…
Looking at the weather map is looks like you avoided the higher winds and may have gotten a nice lift.
Great choices..shows your experience at sea.Looks good from there to here now.Travel safe .Our prayers ride in the wind to you.
Good luck tomorrow, here’s wishing you a smooth evening.