So far, this morning is shaping up pretty well. Its still warm (shorts & polo weather), the sun peeks through the clouds every once in a while, and the wind has picked up to 18-20 kts. Given the direction, though, the apparent wind is only around 10 kts. Very comfortable, pretty fast.
Given the nice conditions, I decided to put in my first reef. Immediately at her doing that, I decided to go for the second one as well. Hey, Im not racing! Plus, its much more pleasant to reef in these conditions than when its raining and miserable on deck, with sea spray flying everywhere and the occasional wave of sea water flowing across the deck. I try to stay below as much as possible under those conditions.
The one thing I havent dealt with yet is my jib strategy: leave as is, reef it, or drop it and put up my storm jib. If I know Im going to see 35+ kts, I will go storm jib. But, so far, the wind strength seems somewhat lower than forecast.
Beyond wind strength and direction, I dont know much about the conditions to expect. Typically, I only download GRIB files (binary data) for wind and surface pressure. If I have any concerns, as now, I also download a text forecast and a surface analysis that weather folks assure me is better than the raw model data (GRIBs) because they have input from a human forecasting professional. May be true, but I cant think of a time that I got a great insight from these. Anyway, none of these show air temp, precipitation, cloud cover, etc. All of this is available from the model; I just choose not to incur the cost of downloading it at sea. Long story, short: I hope it doesnt rain too hard!
(30-minute interlude during which I download and review weather data)
OK, interesting. So there is a low pressure zone moving off Virginia and a big high to the east of us. Thats what is creating the wind strength. And a second low forming southwest of th first one. Thats why waiting a day wouldnt have bought me lower wind velocities.
Anyway, the bottom line is that the latest forecast is for a peak of 40 kts along my path around 8pm tonight. (Why is it always dark when this happens?) so, windier than I expected, which means Ill definitely put up the storm jib today.
Other than that, Im ready. Batteries charged, all my kit stowed away below.
Ill write tomorrow.
Good luck Scott. Be as safe as you can out there!
Your model analysis looks pretty good, Scott. You are still dealing with a somewhat inexact science. Anyway, a bit of wind and rain for you coming up late today and tonight, but nothing like what you encountered last year! After that, well, it’s warmer than usual for this time of year, but a lot cooler than where you are now!
I hope your evening won’t be too unpleasant. I’m enjoying your travelogue very much.